Navigating Demographic Transitions: Unraveling Complexities from a Global Perspective
Economic strength is the most accurate predictor of quality of life, wealth, and political stability. Maintaining economic structural functionality is a priority, especially in developed societies, where the individual has been able to reap historically unparalleled prosperity and welfare. Unfortunately, the most devastating influences on economic health are usually the hardest to foresee: pandemics, wars, and drastic political disruptions. There are hardly any indicators that are as accurately predictive of the future state of the world economy as the data derived from demographic studies. Demographic analyses have been the focus of economic forecasts and policy decisions for as long as the field of study has existed.
Starting in the 1960s a movement arose, that started spreading the idea that population growth would reach a level that could not be sustained by the resources available on earth, leading to mass poverty, starvation, and the end of civilization. This apocalyptic belief has, in the past, led countries to implement policies of human population planning. The most famous example of this is the Chinese One-Child policy, which ultimately led to unsustainably low fertility rates, rapid population aging, and sex disproportion. After 36 years of devastating demographical disruption, China revoked the policy in 2015.
Demographical trends can be multifaceted. Fertility differs in different regions for different reasons. In the 1930s, the American demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973) created a model to interpret the demographical transition of countries that underwent industrial progression. His hypothesis is compiled with historical data from two centuries of European industrial development and has provided explanations for other cases that followed. This demographic transition model (DTM) involves four stages that describe the causes for changes in demographic composition as countries advance in medicine, technology, and quality of living.
The first stage is the pre-industrial stage. This first phase records high birth and high child mortality rates. The birth rates are high because offspring has economic value in a society that is still highly agrarian. That is because children can support their aging parents by working on the family farm. Still, reproduction is balanced: even though families in 18th century Europe would have six children on average, disease, famines, wars, and lack of sanitation would prevent population growth from reaching unsustainable levels. On average, only two children survived until adulthood.
The second stage starts with early industrialization. Families in Europe moved into the cities to seek more promising job opportunities in the new factories. The birth-rates remained high for similar reasons to the ones mentioned for stage one: the children were mainly serving as an economic backbone. But differently than in stage one, the mortality rate declines as science brings advancements to sanitation, medicine, and nutrition. Net reproduction is positive, and the population begins to rise.
In the third phase, a trend inverses. In the final stage of industrialization, birth rates start to decline. One explanation for this in Western countries was that women had improved prospects in education and careers, which resulted in many women deciding to postpone their first pregnancy. The increased availability of contraception is also often mentioned as one of the causes. Most importantly, the families' priorities change over time as wages increase and employment in the agricultural sector declines. Children not only lose their economic appeal as they don’t contribute physically to the families' business anymore; instead, the next generation becomes a financial burden to the family until a child reaches adulthood. A mix of factors causes this decline in birth rates, and we cannot pinpoint one specific reason. Still, it is inarguable that most explanations are connected to shifts in culture and tradition that are induced by the industrial movement. In the past, the achievement of governmental stability and economic strength usually led to the aforementioned.
The last and fourth stage, defined by Thompson, leads us to a scenario where net population growth is 0. Births and deaths balance out, population levels stabilize, and industrialization will have created higher living and health standards for society.
First-world countries all underwent these phases while developing countries are still transitioning. But while this model creates optimistic and appealing outlooks that seem plausible on paper, most real-world examples do not follow the progression proposed by the model.
The population projections compiled by the United Nations in 2022 identify differences in demographical tendencies between the Global South (Third World) and the Global North (First World). Especially in Sub-Saharan countries, population growth has not been declining, even after the regions achieved meaningful reductions in child mortality. According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the population growth in Africa was 2.51% in 2021. In the North we are seeing declining fertility and, most importantly, in eastern and southern Europe we are witnessing something that some people call the 5th stage in the industrial transition model. The fertility change has now caused the growth rate to fall below 0. The UN calculates the population growth for Europe and North America at -0.01%.
These differences spark the need and interest for a causal comparison. To address the issue of potential overpopulation in the Third World, we need to get behind the cultural roots of demographic trends that cause this.
As mentioned before, a wealthy society perceives the concept of family differently than a developing society would. While children in developing countries need to provide care and physical/economic support for their aging parents, Western societies almost perceive children to be a luxury and a cash drain. Reproduction is postponed till when the parents have financial stability. Many Western societies today regard the idea of having a child at the age of 18 as something life-ruining. Also, improved career prospects for women mean that education and career take precedence over procreation. The diminishing importance of religion, the accessibility of contraceptives, the rise of alternative family structures, and the social acceptance of abortions almost certainly influence the shift. All of these aspects lead to reduced or postponed fertility, ultimately resulting in a shrink in population.
On the other hand, Africa’s population is facing ever-rising growth levels: for the foreseeable future, only eight African countries will be accountable for more than half of the increase in the global population. The continent has been able to reach the youngest population on earth, which enables two potential trajectories. On one hand, the youth can drive an economic boom, improving the lives of billions. On the other hand, the pressure put on social infrastructure, like education, healthcare, and food distribution, could result in political instability and social unrest.
Sub-Saharan countries are still on stage two of the demographical transition scale. As mentioned before, mortality is low, but fertility is high. The high fertility can be attributed to the underdeveloped industrial conditions, still faced in the regions. Lower incomes and dependence on agriculture mean that society values larger families, as they can form a supportive structure. Much of the explanation for persistently high reproduction lies in culture. The conservative-leaning societies mostly reject contraceptives and sex education. Finally, there is a negative correlation between the number of women getting an education and the fertility rate, suggesting that women’s role in society plays a crucial role here.
Fewer people are born under free and wealthy conditions, and more are under the inhuman conditions of geographies controlled by unstable and dictatorial governments. Overpopulation in areas of natural food and water scarcity, such as in sub-Saharan countries, should be a subject of great humanitarian concern. Investments to improve industrial conditions and contain fertility (possibly promoting the availability of contraceptives) should occur to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe and to lead the regions towards the DTM 4 stage. For this to be possible, political stability must precede. At the same time, we need to work to raise birth rates in Western countries to ensure future economic strength, wealth, and progression. There is no justifiable argument against reproduction in the West, especially considering that most of us have the financial means to sustain a family.
Ferdinando Angeloni